Novel fire regimes in the Far North? Natural variability, anthropogenic change, and biogeochemical consequences
报告题目：Novel fire regimes in the Far North? Natural variability, anthropogenic change, and biogeochemical consequences
系列：“生态与环境讲坛”系列第 208 讲
摘要：Concerns about the environmental and socioeconomic consequences of anthropogenic warming have motivated numerous investigations of climate change and its impact on ecosystems. High-latitude ecosystems are of particular interest because they are projected to be among the most sensitive to anthropogenic forcing and because biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks to the global system can exacerbate climatic warming. The frequency and extent of boreal and tundra fires in recent years appear striking, possibly as a result of anthropogenic warming. Are these recent fires unprecedented? Or do they occur naturally, with observational and satellite records too brief to capture the true natural range of variability? Because fire return intervals are long in these systems, assessing the possibility of rising novelty from the complex effects of climate change on fire regimes requires a holistic perspective from paleo-analyses, field observations, and computer modeling. In this presentation, I synthesize recent studies of fire-regime variability, place ongoing and projected future changes in the context of natural variability, and discuss their biogeochemical implications.